Prediction Ledger
Dated, sourced predictions about the AI supply chain — tracked to resolution. Every call is either confirmed correct, partially right, wrong, or unresolvable, with reasoning. The ledger is the memory.
Pending
If TSMC fully met Jensen's demand, Nvidia could sell ~$2-3T of GPUs in 2026-27 (but would trigger overbuild)
Terafab (SpaceX/Tesla + Intel) succeeds in building the world's largest fab in America
OpenAI and Anthropic each exceed ~$200B ARR this year via usage-based pricing + more compute
If Anthropic were unconstrained on compute it would already be doing ~$100-200B vs ~$50B ARR
Frontier tokens keep capturing the majority of model-layer economic value
A 'bitter-lesson' violation via ASI self-optimization is the single biggest risk to the AI trade
Continual learning arrives soon, producing a fast takeoff
Disaggregation of prefill/decode extends GPU useful lives to ~10-15 yrs and lowers financing toward 5-6%
Frontier labs eventually stop releasing top models via API (new prisoner's dilemma)
Nvidia could build a near-frontier in-house model whenever it wants (though likely won't)
Amazon shows real P&L efficiencies from robotics in retail over the next ~18 months
Google stays well-positioned (most compute, YouTube/robotics data, search); Google I/O is a key Pareto-frontier test
Near-term power/watts shortage begins to ease as new energy sources come online
Orbital compute (racks in space linked by lasers) becomes real and solves power long-term, mainly for inference
TSMC's capacity decisions are the single most important variable for whether AI gets a bubble
TSMC stays in a 'Goldilocks' zone — expands enough to block a >30%-share second source, not enough to overbuild
Intel or Samsung eventually breaks capacity discipline, forcing others to follow
~half of new power capacity will be behind-the-meter
Anthropic & OpenAI each reach ~5-6 GW
Anthropic & OpenAI each reach ~10 GW
~700 EUV tools installed -> ~200 GW/yr AI-chip ceiling
China fully indigenizes DUV; EUV 'working' but not volume
Smartphone volumes fall to ~800M then 500-600M
Memory prices double or triple again
Space data centers don't make economic sense this decade
Sam Altman wants 52 GW/yr (~1 GW/week)
Elon Musk wants 100 GW/yr of compute in space
Google must double AI serving capacity every 6 months
Elon Musk: build a 'TeraFab' — 1M wafers/month
ASML/EUV becomes the #1 AI-compute scaling constraint