Adaptation Curve

Lens · L1 · Power & the Physical Stack

Solving the chip shortage created the power shortage.

Every constraint the industry clears downstream shoves the bottleneck one layer closer to the wall socket. Watch it travel from packaging (2024) to power generation (2026) — and see what's standing in line behind it.

Why this matters to you

Power lead times now gate your buildout more than GPU allocation. A 2027 cluster is a 2024 substation order — plan the megawatts before the silicon.

Constraint migration · 10 layers × 3 horizons · ▲ rose / ▼ eased QoQ · click a layer to drill

The matrix below shows the full constraint grid with then→now movement. Deep-dives: Power generation, Memory (HBM), Compute – chips.

The old standalone Atlas and Bandwidth Ladder pages remain reachable via Supply Chain → Atlas and Bandwidth Ladder.

The backlog blowout

-99% in 2 periods150.2Q1 262Q2 26GW backlog
Gas-turbine backlog confirms power as a real near-term constraint, not a permanent one GE Vernova's remaining performance obligations hit $150B at end-2025—up 26% year-over-year—and Caterpillar's Power & Energy backlog jumped ~$11.5B in a single quarter, making the order pile the clearest financial signal of today's generation crunch. The relief valve is already in view: multiple sources peg the shortage easing in 2027–28 as new capacity comes online. For teams planning GPU cluster deployments now, the window of tightest power constraint is roughly 12–18 months, and permitting risk is a bigger variable than turbine physics.

10-Layer AI Hardware Supply Chain

Where the constraints are now

Every layer of the AI hardware stack, scored as a binding constraint or not — across three time horizons. Each call is sourced, dated and refreshed quarterly.

4/10

layers binding right now

4 layers are binding today — semi equipment, cooling & thermal, electrical gear, power generation.

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Time horizon

Filter

NOW

MID-TERM

END OF DECADE

QoQ

01Compute demand
·
02Hyperscalers & clouds
03Compute – chips
04Memory (HBM)
·
05Networking
06Foundry & packaging
07Semi equipment
08Cooling & thermal
09Electrical gear
10Power generation
Binding constraintWatchNot binding

Sourced · dated · refreshed quarterly · v2 · 2026-06-16

Select a cell in the grid to view details.